The agency was seeking comment for a proposal to delay implementation of portions of an Obama-era rule aimed at controlling methane emissions from new and modified sources in the oil and gas industry.
However, given current modeling and data limitations, it does not include all important damages. "What they're doing [here] is making a legal argument that, in order to create emissions standards, EPA has to have found that that source category contributes significantly on that particular pollutant that they're regulating," she said. "Under a 20-year period, fossil fuel methane is 87 times as much as CO2, over a 100-year period it's 36 times as much.". For example, the projected net present value of carbon dioxide mitigation benefits over the next forty years from three vehicle rulemakings was estimated to range from $78 billion to $1.2 trillion ($2010), depending on which of the four SC-CO2 estimates were used (i.e., the average SC-CO2 at 5, 3, and 2.5 percent and the 95th percentile SC-CO2 at 3 percent). "New sources represent 10% or less of industry emissions. Conversely, each ton of greenhouse gases abated in another country benefits the United States along with the rest of the world," the authors wrote.
You may need a PDF reader to view some of the files on this page. Dino Grandoni. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
EPA Revises the Social Cost of a Potent Greenhouse Gas. The SC-CO2 is a measure, in dollars, of the long-term damage done by a ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in a given year. The move comes after EPA had provided a detailed analysis of how significantly emissions from the oil and gas industry contributed to climate change in 2016. Watford City, North Dakota - gas is flared off as oil is pumped in the Bakken shale formation. Under its rule, the Trump administration jettisoned the requirement to regulate emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and instead only required operators to curb precursors to smog called volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for the production and processing segments of the industry. Subscribers get more award-winning coverage of advances in science & technology. In addition to crafting regulations, the Obama administration sought to expand methane reduction initiatives beyond its own borders. stream Social Cost of CH4, 2015-2050a (in 2007 dollars per metric ton CH4) Economists and scientists developed the calculation to give policymakers a better idea of the economic benefits of cutting methane emissions. "It's really a free pass for the vast bulk of the industry," he said. The environmental group cites the recommendations of a 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report as a reason for EPA to dramatically shorten the time frame over which it calculates greenhouse gas impact—from 100 years down to 20. If the information you are looking for is not here, you may be able to find it on the EPA Web Archive or the January 19, 2017 Web Snapshot. The rulemakings directly targeting carbon dioxide emissions have projected notable climate-related benefits for society. The full set of model results for the SC-CO2, SC-CH4 and SC-N2O are available on the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) website.Â, Social Cost of CO2, 2015-2050 a (in 2007 dollars per metric ton CO2) 4 0 obj %���� Earthjustice has uncovered evidence that EPA's claims of redundancy are pretextual, said Earthjustice's Miller. The administrator could use the resulting lower climate benefits to justify stalling the rules on the grounds that the compliance costs to the industry over the two-year stay of the oil and gas rule outweigh the value of any reductions in methane, said Restrepo. That's a substantial limiting of where emissions standards will apply.". "The EPA under Administrator Gina McCarthy didn't adhere to the proper scientific and legal processes by first determining that methane causes or contributes to increased levels of air pollution gas," said Paul Griffin, executive director of Energy Fairness, and former lobbyist for the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. 3 0 obj Source: Addendum to the Technical Support Document for the Social Cost of Carbon: Application of the Methodology to Estimate the Social Cost of Methane and the Social Cost of Nitrous Oxide (August 2016)Â. âaThe SC-N2O values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific. EPA has used estimates of SC-CO2 to analyze the carbon dioxide impacts of various rulemakings since 2008. That difference is reflected in the social cost of methane calculated under the Obama administration. Published: Marten, Alex L., and Stephen C. Newbold. "EPA continues to collaborate with Canada and Mexico on a number of environmental initiatives," said an EPA spokesperson. But to make that case, EPA first has to limit how broadly regulations are allowed to apply to the industry by eliminating emissions requirements for the transmission and storage segments of the industry. Both the methodology for valuing the damages from CH4 and N2O emissions and the application of the SC-CH4 and SC-N2O estimates to regulatory cost-benefit analysis have been subject to rigorous independent peer review and public comment. The models used to develop SC-CO2 estimates, known as integrated assessment models, do not currently include all of the important physical, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change recognized in the climate change literature because of a lack of precise information on the nature of damages and because the science incorporated into these models naturally lags behind the most recent research. EPA and other federal agencies also use estimates of the social cost of methane (SC-CH 4) and the social cost of nitrous oxide (SC-N 2 O) in analyses of regulatory actions that are projected to influence CH 4 or N 2 O emissions in a manner consistent with how CO 2 emission changes are valued. While environmentalists and government attorneys duke it out in court over the legality of EPA's new methane standards, some experts say oil and gas companies could be left in the lurch if presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is elected president and decides to overturn the rule. This paper is part of the Environmental Economics Working Paper Series. "The uncertainty in planning for how to comply, it costs a lot of time and money," she said. Part of the reason is EPA is only considering the domestic cost of methane emissions in its calculations, a fact that critics say severely underestimates the global environmental harm caused by the gas. So why are the numbers shrinking under the Trump administration? "It's like saying, 'I'm only willing to spend a couple dollars right now to keep the entire economy from being destroyed for my great-great-grandchildren. "It's not the actual reason that EPA is pursuing rescission of the methane regulations," she said. © 2020 Scientific American, a Division of Springer Nature America, Inc. Support our award-winning coverage of advances in science & technology. As discussed in the 2010 SC-CO2 TSD, estimates of the social cost of these greenhouse gases increase over time because future emissions are expected to produce larger incremental damages as physical and economic systems become more stressed in response to greater climatic change, and because GDP is growing over time and many damage categories are modeled as proportional to gross GDP. "Because greenhouse pollution does not stay within geographic borders but rather mixes in the atmosphere and affects the climate worldwide, each ton emitted by the United States or a particular U.S. state not only creates domestic harms, but also imposes large externalities on the rest of the world.
The Energy 202: Even the EPA acknowledges its new methane rule may be costly. The gas only stays in the atmosphere for a dozen years. "That's not the way it's previously been interpreted.".  Longer-term recommendations about how to approach a comprehensive update to the estimates, including research priorities, are expected in the Academies' final report in January 2017.Â. endobj u>�M��:����-{Z3�* g ��4�t��Y�e���v*Rd\��K�u1��1��������Ok)��U'K�#j۾~���qB�d�rBc,�yA/b�v����9����@���`X��]~ b����FQ$���R�E��5�����C�g\�r�,=�F��nkB��I�:��k4�C�Ptܮ�g��xF6h$�P�����:����;k�f�z};3d�.
The Trump administration canceled the international collaboration—known as the "Methane Strategy"—as part of the president's energy independence executive order. Credit: Jim West/agefotostock/Newscom, Legal experts warn that significant legal obstacles are ahead for EPA's rollback of methane regulations for the oil and gas sector. "Estimating the social cost of non-CO2 GHG emissions: Methane and nitrous oxide," Energy policy 51: 957-972. Estimating the Social Cost of Non-CO. 2 . The Center for Biological Diversity took particular issue with the way the agency calculated methane's potency. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report observed that SC-CO2 estimates omit various impacts that would likely increase damages. The rule falls into the Trump administration's pattern of finding ways to limit the scope of agency powers under the Clean Air Act to regulate planet-warming gases in years to come, said Hana Vizcarra, a staff attorney at Harvard Law School's Environmental & Energy Law Program. Low-production wells are exempt from compliance — a win for industry groups like the Independent Petroleum Association of America. The shorter-lived gas has a much stronger warming effect than CO2. Contact Us. The legislation would prevent specific federal agencies from considering the social cost of carbon (SCC), methane, or nitrous oxide. With participation by The Trump administration’s move is part of a broad effort to downplay the impacts of climate change. Contact Us to ask a question, provide feedback, or report a problem. "They have begun to manipulate those estimates in ways that are not at all consistent with the best science or economics," he said. "It breaks with prior interpretation of the Clean Air Act in order to take a stance that could limit the ability of EPA to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from any source in the future," Vizcarra said. endstream endobj 4413 0 obj <>stream Instead, the Institute for Policy Integrity recommended the best approach would be to use the calculations put forward by the Obama administration's Interagency Working Group in August 2016, which set a social cost of methane at $1,200 per metric ton for 2020 in 2007 dollars ($1,400 in today's dollars). The Trump administration has drawn criticism for its use of an interim domestic social cost of methane estimate that only accounts for harm that occurs within the United States. An official website of the United States government. Environmental groups say the approach vastly underestimates the damage caused by climate change globally, while making the cost savings of the rollback to industry look worthwhile. See also the following documents for information about ongoing research to improve the SC-CO2. The Trump administration has drawn criticism for its use of an interim domestic social cost of methane estimate that only accounts for harm that occurs within the United States. Hayes, whose State Energy & Environmental Impact Center promotes actions by state attorneys general on clean energy and climate, called EPA's response "absurd.". %PDF-1.5 endobj
EPA revealed how it was reshaping methane's impact in a recently published notice. 2012. Legal experts agree the agency's cost-benefit analysis justifying the rule change will be a likely target of litigation, particularly in light of a recent district court ruling striking down the Trump administration's approach to the social cost of methane, which puts a dollar figure on the harm caused by emissions of the greenhouse gas. 1 0 obj DISCLAIMER . Contact Us to ask a question, provide feedback, or report a problem. Addendum to Technical Support Document on Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis under Executive Order 12866: Application of the Methodology to Estimate the Social Cost of Methane and the Social Cost of Nitrous Oxide Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases, United States Government . In both cases the error can be large, so estimates of the social costs of these gases, rather than proxies based on GWPs, should be used whenever possible.
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