Beyond that though, a number of bilateral security agreements negotiated by the U.S. with a number of countries in Asia and the Pacific have formed an unofficial “Pacific military alliance” headquartered at U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) in Honolulu, Hawaii. The associated term hegemon is used to identify the actor, group, class, or state that exercises hegemonic power or that is responsible for the dissemination of hegemonic ideas. What follows is an examination of China’s potential (or lack thereof), and an argument that the Middle Kingdom’s internal problems are too numerous to be considered lightly. In Pushing For Rapid Yuan Appreciation,” 15 February 2011, available from
Without them, the necessary conditions for hegemony to come into existence simply do not exist. In defining Hegemonic Stability theory (HST) it is necessary to understand the meaning of hegemonic. Though some analysts believe there is no housing bubble because of the demand generated by rural peasants migrating to the cities, one Hong Kong based economist said that housing prices in cities such as Shanghai and Beijing may be fourteen times greater than the disposable income of most average residents. [70] Since the PRC wants to maintain the status-quo in its trade relationship with the U.S., the central government is refusing to take action against inflation so that the value of the Yuan can remain low. Private healthcare is too expensive for much of the population, and government subsidies are mostly targeted at the wealthy east coast cities. In one case, in selling off a significant portion of its reserves, China threatens to surrender much of its remaining reserves. For more information regarding this data, see: Central Intelligence Agency, “Country Comparison: GDP (Purchasing Power Parity),” The World Factbook, 2011, available from
Then, “several major nations” joined Brazil in continuing the accusations that the Federal Reserve has been “deliberately devaluing the dollar” rather than taking “measures to rein in spending.”[48], What is more is that the U.S. continues to fall behind in a number of substantive ways. Of course, the pay off for China has been in Africa’s vast supplies of chromium, manganese, gold, and uranium. [11] It also has the preponderance of material resources, has competitive advantages, technological superiority and furthermore the political control over valuable resources.
Simoes, Carla. “Economics 101 for deficit hawks.” The Guardian, 6 October 2010. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/oct/06/economy-economics (accessed 10 October 2010). The memory of the past, however, has been a block to any significant increase in major economic linkages between Japan and China. Take, for example, the Apple IPod, which is assembled and tested in China. This threatens to alter the 21st century balance of power in ways that may pose significant challenges to U.S. economic primacy. The Next Decade: Where We’ve Been… and Where We’re Going. “The coming economic crisis in China.” MSN Money, 14 January 2010. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/the-coming-economic-crisis-in-china.aspx?page=1 (accessed 22 March 2011). [20] Krepinevich, 7 Deadly Scenarios, 188-189. The U.S. Air Force maintains unquestioned superiority over air and space. Australia’s policymakers in Canberra, while attempting to accommodate China’s rise, are also nervous. [71] Second, the PRC stimulus and state-owned bank lending are also creating artificial demand to drive the domestic economy, which is actually increasing the risks associated with nonperforming loans. Be on the lookout for your Britannica newsletter to get trusted stories delivered right to your inbox. Francis Fukuyama does not believe that the contagion will spread to China any time soon, but he suggests that the Jasmine Revolutions could cause problems for the PRC in the future.
“IMF Bombshell: Age of America nears end.” Market Watch, 25 April 2011. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-bombshell-age-of-america-about-to-end-2011-04-25?pagenumber=1 (accessed 26 April 2011). The World in Depression: 1929-1939. To find out more about E-IR essay awards, click here. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ee.html (accessed 2 February 2011). Hegemony, Hegemony, the dominance of one group over another, often supported by legitimating norms and ideas. [121] Chang, The Coming Collapse of China, 19-32. Despite the fact that some think China is just playing coy about its ambitions, leaders of the PRC may prefer the mantle of world leadership fall on another power, such as the EU. Washington, D.C.: National Intelligence Council and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2008. In response to the Great Recession, the central government launched a massive stimulus aimed at developing infrastructure and social welfare. [92], This only happened because the U.S. had both the will and ability to do so. [25] Arthur A. Stein.
Evidence of this bubble can be seen in three places.
Goldman Sachs asserts that the economies of BRIC could be larger than the G-6 (the U.S., Japan, the United Kingdom [UK], France, and Italy) by 2039. - High royalties for the sales [119] Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, 223. Emmott, Bill. This is the question being asked by a small, but growing, chorus of futurists; and their arguments are rather persuasive, too. [38] United States Diplomatic Mission to Brazil, “Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton attends Rousseff’s Presidential Inauguration,” Press Release, 1 January 2011, available from
3.3.2 The IMF and the World Bank
[120] Terrorism linked to possible democratic transition could prevent China from becoming hegemon, but the PRC has more pressing issues of stability to concern itself with. This will be followed by a discussion of HST and an analysis of China’s rise through a theoretical lens. - Publication as eBook and book China Shakes the World: A Titan’s Rise and Troubled Future—and the Challenge for America. Another assumption is that the maintenance of this order requires a continued hegemony which implies cooperation between the participating states within the system.[6]. In order for a state to become hegemon, it has to have a favorable geography that fosters surplus security. There are, however, other issues acting as barriers to China’s hegemonic accession. Get exclusive access to content from our 1768 First Edition with your subscription. This is significant as the Jasmine Revolutions have been sparked by educated, tech-savvy, young people dissatisfied with their regime’s inability to provide adequate jobs. In fact, a majority of the EU’s members believe China to be a more reliable partner than the U.S. in promoting global stability, which is probably why countries, such as France, are joining the PRC’s efforts to constrain the U.S. at the UN and elsewhere. This is exemplified by the fact that the Great Recession slowed China’s economic growth, despite the fact that its enormous economy helped pull the Middle Kingdom out of the global economic crisis largely unscathed. After about seventy to one hundred years, it seems that decline is almost natural. [2] The theory was developed in the 1970s to explain the Pax Britannica and the Pax Americana[3]. In 2009, the heads of state from the four BRIC nations held their first summit, which ended with a call for a multipolar world order, and a rejection of U.S. Excluding U.S. Special Forces covertly operating abroad, training missions, and technical support missions, the U.S. has troops deployed to more than fifty-five countries at a time. The unemployed, underemployed, and impoverished could rise up if the economy cannot absorb their ranks, generating waves of political instability in the process. Eventually, Kindleberger comes to the conclusion that “for the world economy to be stabilized, there has to be a stabilizer, one stabilizer.”[4] This function has to be fulfilled by the hegemon, who is the dominant power in the system. Given the PLAN’s determination to develop area denial capabilities against the U.S. in the Pacific, it’s fitting that this ad hoc alliance is taking shape in Hawaii, which can serve as the central hub for bases and allies from Japan to Australia, India to New Zealand, and South Korea to Thailand. Princeton, 2001: 94. Combine this with the existing population of unemployed workers, and the PRC is dealing with a true recipe for disaster. This is also why it is easier for a country with access to both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans to become hegemon. [112] The PRC is also surrounded by a number of historical enemies, including India, Mongolia, and Japan, to name three. It is inevitable therefore, that China will also succumb to the economic laws of gravity. Gramsci’s analysis of hegemony thus involves an analysis of the ways in which such capitalist ideas are disseminated and accepted as commonsensical and normal. National Intelligence Council. [131] Ibid., 114-115; and Central Intelligence Agency, “China,” The World Factbook. Initially, Beijing tried to end its direct subsidies. The Political Economy of International Relations. [144], Owing to the unintended demographic consequences of its 1980 one child policy, China’s population is aging much faster than that of Europe, the U.S., and, with exception of Japan, its economically advanced Asian neighbors. [78] Jubak, “The coming economic crisis in China.”. [23] Therefore, the ability of the hegemon to manage and stabilize the system decreases. Shidong, Zhang.
Ole R. Holsti, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alexander L. George (Boulder, Colorado: Westview, 1980), 132. China, which still considers itself a developing country in need of special treatment, may have been blocking these efforts in order to protect itself from future calls for further action on climate change. For example, China’s GDP-PPP is remarkably high (second only to the U.S.), but China ranks 127th in the world in terms of per capita GDP-PPP (a full 117 places behind the U.S). The answer is not quite as clear, because the prerequisites for ability are more numerous. [54] In other words, if the U.S. economy is destined for decline, then China’s will likely go down with it. Take as an example, the Thyssen Krupp steel mill of Dortmund, Germany. If the U.S. really is in decline, and China cannot become hegemon, then a few scenarios may play out. The US-Hegemony
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